There is ‘deep concern’ over the impact the UK Government’s proposed cuts to welfare will have on Wales.

Welsh think tank, The Bevan Foundation, has welcomed some elements of the UK Government’s Green Paper on reforming benefits, but also says there is cause for concern.

The UK Government has set out its proposals to reform some social security benefits for people of working age in its Green Paper ‘Pathways to work‘. Its plans will have a huge, and concerning, impact on 275,000 people in Wales who receive Personal Independence Payment (PIP) and 110,000 people who receive Universal Credit and have Limited Capability for Work Related Activity.

The foundation said: “Merging the Work Capability Assessments into PIP assessments, undertaking regular reviews of eligibility and holding more face-to-face assessments should reduce duplication, ensure assessments are sound, and reduce stress on claimants.

“The uplift to the standard UC allowance by £7 a week is also a welcome, if small, step. And the proposal to clarify the work that claimants can undertake and guarantee that they can try a job without jeopardising their benefits should help to support people into work.”

However, The Bevan Foundation is very concerned about the impact of the proposals on people with a mild or moderate disability or health condition. Having previously been deemed by a government assessment to be unable to work and in need of state support, they will now face a new, tougher test.

All existing PIP and UC LCWRA claimants (except people with very severe conditions) will be reassessed, initially with at least 4 points being required in one daily living activity to receive the daily living component of PIP ahead of a wider changes to PIP to be announced. The effect is to raise the threshold at which someone is considered ill or disabled enough to receive extra state help.

The foundation said: “If someone is considered to fall below the threshold, the financial impact is huge.

“At a stroke they will lose up to £119 a week (£47 a week in the UC LCWRA payment and £72.65 a week lower rate daily living element of PIP).

“The Green Paper says that there will be help with their health needs put in place and refers to unspecified transitional protection for people who are no longer eligible. But in the context of £5bn cuts, nobody should expect any protection to be generous. The impact on people’s wellbeing of such big losses could be catastrophic.

“There will also difficulties for new claimants, who will no longer be entitled to the UC LCWRA payment, while people under 22 years of age could be barred from claiming the health element of UC and from receiving PIP.”

They also say the transition could be ‘incredibly painful’, adding: “The expectation in the Green Paper is that people who are not seriously ill or disabled should work, even though many claimants who fall short of new assessments may not have worked for many years if ever.

“The Bevan Foundation has real concerns about whether there are sufficient jobs that are suitable for people with mild to moderate health conditions, especially in more deprived areas, the availability of adequate support to help people to take them. The transition could be incredibly painful.

“The Green Paper raises challenges for the Welsh Government too.

“A key plank of the proposals is that people now found able to work in England will receive intensive help with their health and that young people will be guaranteed a job or training place. The Welsh Government will either need to match the UK Government’s provision or put people who have already lost a large amount in benefits at a further disadvantage.”

These concerns have been echoed by Carmarthen MP Ann Davies, who is Plaid Cymru’s spokesperson on Works and Pensions in Westminster.

She criticised the planned cuts to welfare, saying that they will “only add strain to already overstretched health services”.

Wales will be hit particularly hard by the cuts, with the nation having the second highest proportion in the UK of disabled people of working age, at 28%.

Disabled people in Wales are less likely than average to be in employment, with 50.9% having a paid job, and therefore they are more likely to rely on benefits as their sole source of income. For comparison, just 22.4% of people in the south-east of England are disabled and 61.7% of them are in employment.

The measures, which include restrictions to Personal Independence Payments (PIP), do not go as far as initially briefed to the press, but constitute a £5 billion cut to the welfare system. Ms Davies said that devolved services will have to “shoulder the costs of these damaging cuts”, yet criticised the Welsh Government for remaining “silent”.

These cuts come at a time of rising economic inactivity, a growing backlog for government support, and increasing demand for specialist equipment for disabled workers. Plaid Cymru say that the priority should be to invest in support for disabled people and those suffering with mental health issues to access training, rather than harsh cuts to support.

Plaid Cymru’s DWP spokesperson, Ann Davies MP, said: “Stripping £5 billion from the welfare bill will only add strain to already overstretched health services.

“Once again, this UK Labour Government is choosing short-term austerity over long-term solutions to the deep issues that affect us all.

“Instead of slashing vital support, the UK Government should be investing in ways to address poverty, health inequalities, and the lack of support for disabled people.

“Wales will particularly impacted, with the second-highest proportion of disabled people of working age in the UK. Devolved services will have to shoulder the costs of these damaging cuts, yet the Labour Welsh Government remain silent.

“These cuts are not only unnecessary but avoidable. The government has a clear choice: implement a wealth tax, as suggested by its own MPs, or continue with these punitive measures. A 2% levy on assets over £10 million could raise £24 billion, which could be reinvested into services that help disabled people and those struggling with ill health get back into employment or training, where possible.”

The government says it wants to help those who can work back into employment, while doing more to protect those with severe conditions who are unable to do so.

As part of this it will invest £1bn in what it calls "high-quality, tailored and personalised support" to help people find jobs.

A new "right to try" system will mean people will not be financially penalised if they take a job which doesn't work out.

The government will also consult on merging job seekers allowance and employment seekers allowance into a single time-limited benefit that is not means-tested. This would be more generous but available for a shorter period.

"If you have paid into the system, you'll get stronger income protection while we help you get back on track," Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall said.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer said: “We inherited a fundamentally broken welfare system. It does not work for the people it is supposed to support, businesses who need workers or taxpayers who foot the bill.”