Households across mid and west Wales are paying roughly one-third more to heat and eat that they did 24 months ago, new figures reveal. And that’s even as energy prices faced a 10 per cent price cap in October and as many seniors across the region lose their winter fuel payments.
The energy price cap rose by 1.2 per cent on New Year's Day, and while the effect of that latest rise hasn’t been fully factored in yet, it’s bound to be a further blow to struggling consumers.
Renters too face a tougher time now when it comes to making the choice between heating, eating and paying rent, with most of the long-term rental properties across the region rating poorly when it comes to fuel efficiency and insulation.
Putting all of the elements of this fuel and pricing crisis together, and roughly one-in-three household in the area are facing a winter of cold and uncertainty, analysis of new data shows.
Residents of Ceredigion will pay a third more to heat their homes than they did before the energy crisis, new figures show.
It comes as the energy price cap rose by 10 per on October 1. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said Ofgem's raising of the cap is "deeply worrying" for many people, and the only solution to lowering bills is Labour's "mission for clean, homegrown power".
But how is the energy price cap increase affecting people in the region?
As energy usage varies throughout the UK, we've studied local figures to determine how much an average household might pay in each county.
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero data shows the average household in Ceredigion used 2,849 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity and 8,107 kWh of gas to fuel their homes in 2022.
One kWh would run an average oven for around 30 minutes, while the median has been used to exclude extreme values which could skew the average.
Based on the new energy price cap costs introduced on October 1, a Ceredigion household will pay around £1,542 per year on energy.
This is down from approximately £1,625 based on the energy price cap set in October 2023, but is roughly 39 per cent higher than what a household would expect to pay based on the energy price cap in October 2021, before the cost-of-living crisis.
Based on the new cap, Gwynedd households will pay around £1,468 per year on energy.
This is down from approximately £1,543 based on the energy price cap set in October 2023, but is roughly 40 per cent than the year before.
Pembrokeshire households will pay around £1,435 per year, down from approximately £1,506 but roughly 41 per cent higher than before the cost-of-living crisis.
In Powys, households will pay around £1,511, down from £1,590 but roughly 40 per cent higher.
And in Carmarthenshire it’s a similar story, with a household facing £1,511 per year on energy, roughly 41 per cent more than before.
The price rise comes as Labour is removing the winter fuel allowance for around 10 million pensioners this year.
The Conservatives and Green Party have called on the Government to make a U-turn and provide payments for all pensioners this winter.
Shadow energy secretary Claire Coutinho accused Labour of not being honest about its plans, adding: "Instead of prioritising cheap energy, the new Labour Government are pursuing Ed Miliband's reckless net zero targets with no thoughts to the costs.
"And far from their promise of saving families £300 off their energy bills, one of their first acts in office is to remove the winter fuel payment from 10 million pensioners this winter."
Mr Miliband said the price cap rise was due to the "failed energy policy" his Government inherited, which he claims has left the country "at the mercy of international gas markets controlled by dictators".
He added: "The only solution to get bills down and greater energy independence is the Government’s mission for clean, homegrown power. That’s why we have hit the ground running, lifting the onshore wind ban, consenting unprecedented amounts of solar power and setting the largest-ever budget for our renewables auction.
"We will also do everything in our power to protect billpayers, including by reforming the regulator to make it a strong consumer champion, working to make standing charges fairer, and a proper Warm Homes Plan to save families money."
Andy Manning, head of energy policy at Citizens Advice, said: "With record levels of energy debt, the removal of previous support and changes to the eligibility of the winter fuel payment, people are in desperate need.
"The Government must urgently introduce a targeted bill support that reflects the realities of people’s energy needs."
Simon Francis, co-ordinator of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, welcomed the Government's commitment to improving home efficiency and energy security to stabilise price changes, but admitted they will take time and will not support those in need this winter.
He added: "That’s why it is so vital the ministers bring in more support for vulnerable households this winter, reductions in standing charges and a social tariff.
"The energy industry has made more than £457 billion in profit since the start of the crisis, so there is plenty of money in the system to be able to ensure everyone stays warm this winter and next."
According to Government estimates, the tightening of winter fuel payments will likely push 100,000 pensioners below the poverty line in 2026. In a bid to mend the nation's financial situation, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has curtailed entitlement to the benefit – which is valued at up to £300 – as part of a cost-cutting strategy.
The payout is only be available to those who are recipients of pension credit, with the goal of reining in £1.5 billion annually from the public purse.
The Bevan Foundation says the average direct debit bill will now be roughly £150 more expensive per year— £1,717 in total, over 50 per higher than it was in the summer of 2021. Prices are forecast to remain well above pre-crisis historical averages into the 2030s. The cost-of-living crisis is a long way from being over.
Joel Davies, the policy and research officer at the foundation says “the pressure that energy bills are placing on people on low incomes is evidenced by mounting debt within the sector
“Ofgem estimates that total debt owed by domestic consumers has reached almost £3.7 billion, but the real figure may be higher. Almost three-quarters of the total is made up of debt that has not been consolidated into a repayment arrangement (where the supplier and the customer have not yet agreed a plan to pay it off). The average amount owed in arrears is close to £3,000, a level of debt which many are unlikely to ever be in a position to pay off.
“People are lacking the support they need.”
He said that ass other sources of support have fallen away, energy suppliers have found themselves with an increasing social responsibility to support struggling households.
National Energy Action says more than half of Welsh adults expect to have to ration their energy use this winter. The Welsh and UK governments, along with the regulator, will need to act quickly to support households that will struggle the most.
To maximise the support available through suppliers, more stringent regulation is needed to ensure the help is better promoted and application processes streamlined. Transparent publication of data concerning the use of hardship funds is also vital in joining up efforts on fuel poverty. Additionally, our research showed that suppliers do not co-operate effectively with the advice sector which is a vital conduit for those in the greatest difficulty—priority access should be given by suppliers to organisations with grassroots links into communities.
But really, supplier hardship schemes should exist to support people in crisis, where they are experiencing unforeseen financial difficulties which are the exception rather than the norm. Governments must use their power to address the structural inequality of the energy market. Welsh Government will likely need to provide additional financial assistance to those in the greatest need this winter, while increasing the urgency and pace of its Warm Homes retrofit Programme. Ultimately, the elephant in the room on energy affordability is the UK Government’s lack of action on market reform. Time is long overdue for a progressive solution, most obviously in the form of a social tariff.
“Simply put, everyone should have access to the fuel they need to keep warm, cook their meals, and take their full part in society. This will not be the case in winter 2024 without fundamental action on affordability,” Davies said.
It’s not surprising then that many households across the region are simply turning down the thermostat – or not turning it on at all. Data revels that there has been a dramatic drop in energy consumption, with the End Fuel Poverty Coalition warning some may be continuing to reduce their energy consumption to dangerous levels.
Figures from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero show residents of Ceredigion used a total of 94 gigawatt hours (GWh) of gas in 2023.
This was up from 92 GWh in 2022, but down 15 per cent from 111 GWh in 2019.
Meanwhile, households in the area used 141 GWh of electricity in 2023 – a rise from 138 GWh in 2022, but a 7 per cent drop from 152 GWh in 2019.
The statistics for gas and electricity usage in Pembrokeshire, Carmarthenshire, Gwynedd and Powys mirror similarly drops as Ceredigion.
Across Great Britain, domestic gas usage fell 13 per cent between 2019 and 2023, while electricity fell 6 per cent.
Simon Francis, coordinator of the End Fuel Poverty Coalition, said the reduction could be "caused by many factors" including better energy efficiency and improved insulation.
However, he warned it may not all be good news.
Mr Francis said: "Research has found that households in fuel poverty are reducing their energy consumption to dangerously low levels.
"Some of the UK’s poorest households use 21 per cent less energy during cold weather than other households, leaving them exposed to potentially dangerous, cold and damp homes.
"With energy bills rising again on January 1, it is ever more urgent that the Government combines investment in long term measures to tackle fuel poverty with short term support for struggling households."
He urged the introduction of a reduced social energy tariff for those who might be at risk of living in dangerous conditions and greater investment in insulation.
A spokesperson for the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said: "Our warm homes plan will help people find ways to save money on energy bills and deliver warmer, cleaner to heat homes, with up to 300,000 households to benefit from upgrades next year.
"This will also ensure that new homes are fit for a net zero future, so people can generate their own electricity, cut their bills and at the same time help fight climate change."
They added the Government is doing "everything possible" to support vulnerable families, including through a £150 discount for those struggling to pay their energy bills.
For those in long-term rental properties across mid and west Wales, the energy crisis is more challenging still, with most rental properties rated poor on energy ratings, meaning it costs more to heat rented accommodation.
Friends of the Earth called for more financial support for those who can't afford to upgrade their homes.
All properties in Britain receive an EPC rating when they are sold or rented, from A down to G, which judges how well they preserve energy.
New data from the ONS shows only 23 per cent of private rental properties with a rating in Ceredigion were rated C or above in the year to March.
In Powys, 25 per cent of private rental properties were a D. In Carmarthenshire, the proportion was higher, with 27 per cent rated D. In Gwynedd, the figure is 20 per cent.
Across mid and west Wales, private rental properties fared worst, with 29 per cent rated D.
Across Wales, 36 per cent of private rental properties made the top three grades.
The Government confirmed landlords must uprate all properties to at least an EPC rating of C by 2030, while currently they must have an EPC rating of E or higher.