An export boost, supply squeeze and robust consumer demand have helped positively offset increases in beef imports, Hybu Cig Cymru-Meat Promotion Wales’ (HCC) analysts report.
Elizabeth Swancott is HCC’s Senior Market Intelligence and Research and Development Officer. She said: “Supply across Europe remains tight; beef imports have increased and UK production is up, meaning more product is available for export.
“GB beef exports lifted by almost 11%, from 41,900 tonnes in 2023 to 46,300 tonnes in 2024, with May exports up by 20% on year-earlier figures.”
She said solid consumer positivity coupled with limitations on supply were likely to continue to help prices.
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“Ireland is our largest beef trading partner. Some 30% of total exports went to Ireland but, of the 99,900 tonnes of beef imported, 77 per cent came from Ireland, representing an 18% Irish product increase year-on-year for the first five months of 2024.
GB steer deadweight price strengthened throughout July but Irish beef prices saw a decline, widening gap between GB and Irish steer deadweight prices, making Irish beef more price competitive within the UK.
She said consumer data showed strong beef demand. Experts Kantar reported the volume of beef sold at retail was up 3% on the year (12 weeks until 7 July).
While Irish imports into GB are currently bolstered by increased demand from retail, this inward flow may not persist much longer because of impending tightening of supply.
“Current Irish cattle population data suggests lower numbers of cattle of slaughter age towards the end of 2024 and into 2025,” said. Elizabeth.
“This tightening of supply could have an influence on price and availability for export. In the longer term, Bord Bia forecast that Irish cattle slaughter could fall by 30-40,000 head (-2%) in 2024 for the year as a whole and may begin to influence the market towards the end of 2024 and into 2025.
“The Irish supply position, combined with the tighter EU and UK supply outlooks, and propitious consumer demand, would all suggest favourable undertones for cattle prices in the long term,” she said.