Stark interactive maps produced by international charity Climate Central reveal that even if decades remain before Borth village is submerged, Ynyslas and much of the Dyfi estuary - including the surrounding salt marshes, mudflats and river channels - could well be lost to the sea by 2030.
Another map shows that the amount of land covered by annual average flooding – of at least once per year - could render Borth village unlivable in a similar time frame if storms become more regular.
The modelling also suggests the railway line, including Borth and Dovey Junction stations, Machynlleth and even Aberystwyth are set for serious flooding in only a matter of years.
The maps are based on the latest and most authoritative data from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They take into account how far land sits above sea level but do not consider the strength of sea defences.
In 2021, ITV ran a story which has been criticised by residents for scare-mongering and risking the value of their homes.
It appeared to suggest scientists from Climate Central and the University of Aberystwyth gave Borth only until 2030 before it is ‘under water.’
Both the university and the US-based charity have confirmed to the Cambrian News that this is not accurate – though the threat from flooding to the village is very real.
Residents, councillors and experts fear that Ynyslas would be the first area to be submerged, with the golf course and the flood plain behind Borth - aside the River Leri - the next to be lost.
Estimates from NRW, based on 2018 data, suggest sea levels have been rising on the west coast of Wales by up to five millimeters per annum. But Climate Central says rises will get sharper with every year that passes.
The Met Office suggests, under a higher emissions scenario, Welsh sea levels could rise by between one metre and four metres by the end of the century.
Climate Central spokesperson Peter Girard told the Cambrian News: “We think ten years (cited by ITV) roughly aligns with projections for coastal flooding, though (shown in this map) it may be an example of conflating tideline and storm surge.
“Long before land falls beneath the tideline, low-lying areas will face increasing risks from coastal flooding.
“Many already see more disruption and damage from flooding during storms, and those dangers and costs will only keep rising.
“As governmental authorities understand the risks better, it may become increasingly common to encourage people to move away from harm, before coastal flooding becomes a constant threat to residents’ lives and livelihoods.
“River deltas and floodplains may be far more difficult to protect as seas rise and coastal floods become worse and more frequent.
“For now, the pace of sea level rise is relatively slow, which means that flood-prone communities along the Welsh coast have some time to study and plan for higher water levels – but that pace is already accelerating.
“Cutting global pollution to slow the planet’s warming can also slow the rate of sea level rise, buying more time for coastal communities to build defenses. For some, that additional time could mean the difference between surviving or falling beneath the waves.”
Professor Rhys Jones from Aberystwyth University commented: “Models that demonstrate the impact of climate change and potential sea level rise show the need for humanity to take heed of the seriousness of this challenge
“Places like Borth and Fairbourne, just like many other parts of the Welsh coastline, are facing challenges related to rising sea levels, increased storminess, accelerated beach erosion and local cliff instability.
“The well-publicised April 2021 landslide and earthflow at Nefyn on the Llŷn Peninsula demonstrated how rapidly change can occur. Many places inland are facing increasing threats from other hazards including river flooding, and changing patterns of floodplain erosion and deposition.
“These models show that the challenge of climate change is something that affects people here in mid Wales, as well as in so many other places around the world.”
Project manager for NRW’s Tidal Dyfi Flood Risk Management Strategy, Matthew Jenkins, said: “We are undertaking a major appraisal for the Tidal Dyfi’s southern estuary as part of our national Coastal Adaptation Programme.
“It will gather and evaluate evidence to assess the sustainability of different options to manage coastal defences going into the future.
“It will take into account the priorities of the National Flood Risk Management Policy and wider considerations of coastal adaptation in response to sea level rise as a result of climate change impacts, and the conservation priorities for the area.”
Gwynedd County Council confirmed in 2016 it will not spend any more money defending the small coastal village of Fairbourne, which will be decommissioned and ‘returned to the sea’ - rendering homes practically unsellable.
It is being branded by environmental charities like Greenpeace as the first UK settlement to be lost due to climate change – producing the country’s first climate refugees.
Campaign groups formed in the Fairbourne suggest situations facing other places, namely Borth, are already more severe than their own.
Greenpeace UK produced a video in 2020, featuring interviews with several Borth residents, which more than implies the village could soon suffer the same fate.
The Welsh Government in conjunction with NRW published maps which estimate 245,000 homes in Wales at risk of flooding, especially in winter. This is equivalent to about 11 per cent of Wales.
A Ceredigion county council spokesperson said: “It was communicated quite clearly to stakeholders... that the standard of protection afforded by the defences would reduce with climate change/sea level rise, and that there would be a need to move to a policy of managed realignment at some point in the future, and Shoreline Management Plan 2 nominally noted this as being between 2025 and 2055 along the golf course frontage, and 2055 and 2105 for the village itself.”